Welcome to our daily dive into tennis betting insights. Today, we’re breaking down matchups at the Mutua Madrid Open, focusing on the Pinnacle betting lines and how they compare to the Elo ratings’ implied probabilities. Whether you’re a seasoned gambler or just getting started, these quick analyses will help you spot overvalued and undervalued lines in seconds. Let’s get into the odds!
Mutua Madrid Open – Madrid, Clay
Taylor Harry Fritz vs. Andrey Rublev
- Pinnacle Line: Fritz (+140), Rublev (-170)
- Comparative Probabilities:
- Fritz: Pinnacle implied probability at 39.80% vs. Elo implied at 46.29%.
- Rublev: Pinnacle implied probability at 60.20% vs. Elo implied at 53.71%.
- Value Assessment: The line on Fritz offers value as his win probability is undervalued by Pinnacle compared to the Elo ratings.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Jiri Lehecka
- Pinnacle Line: Auger Aliassime (+130), Lehecka (-160)
- Comparative Probabilities:
- Auger Aliassime: Pinnacle implied probability at 41.33% vs. Elo implied at 41.86%.
- Lehecka: Pinnacle implied probability at 58.67% vs. Elo implied at 58.14%.
- Value Assessment: Lines are fairly valued according to both Pinnacle and Elo, with a slight edge to neither player offering a significant betting advantage.
Conclusion
That’s today’s quick look at the betting landscape for the Mutua Madrid Open. Remember, understanding the discrepancies between different sets of probabilities can reveal valuable betting opportunities. Always gamble responsibly and good luck!
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