Skip to content
Home » Blog » Madrid ATP Top Tennis Picks: Betting Insights and Value Plays

Madrid ATP Top Tennis Picks: Betting Insights and Value Plays

2024-04-28

Welcome to 10sdata.org! If you’re looking for quick, digestible insights on today’s tennis matches, you’ve hit the right spot. We’ve done the number crunching for you, comparing Pinnacle odds with ELO ratings to determine where the betting value lies. Read on to get the edge on your bets today!

Tallon Griekspoor (+170) vs. Holger Rune (-210)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Griekspoor: Pinnacle 35.34% vs. ELO 26.24%
    • Rune: Pinnacle 64.66% vs. ELO 73.76%
  • Value Insight:
    • Both lines appear overvalued for Griekspoor and slightly undervalued for Rune.

Ugo Humbert (+130) vs. Jan-Lennard Struff (-160)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Humbert: Pinnacle 40.97% vs. ELO 34.71%
    • Struff: Pinnacle 59.03% vs. ELO 65.29%
  • Value Insight:
    • Humbert’s line is slightly overvalued, making Struff the safer bet according to the odds.

Andrey Rublev (-220) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (+170)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Rublev: Pinnacle 65.07% vs. ELO 67.31%
    • Davidovich Fokina: Pinnacle 34.93% vs. ELO 32.69%
  • Value Insight:
    • Rublev’s odds slightly undervalued, suggesting a good bet on him might be in the cards.

Hubert Hurkacz (-420) vs. Daniel Altmaier (+310)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Hurkacz: Pinnacle 76.78% vs. ELO 74.55%
    • Altmaier: Pinnacle 23.22% vs. ELO 25.45%
  • Value Insight:
    • Hurkacz’s line is almost correctly valued, indicating a tight match expectation.

Sebastian Baez (+160) vs. Taylor Harry Fritz (-200)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Baez: Pinnacle 36.21% vs. ELO 45.55%
    • Fritz: Pinnacle 63.79% vs. ELO 54.45%
  • Value Insight:
    • Baez appears undervalued, which might offer a valuable bet against the favorite Fritz.

Thiago Seyboth Wild (+750) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (-1430)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Seyboth Wild: Pinnacle 11.18% vs. ELO 18.56%
    • Alcaraz: Pinnacle 88.82% vs. ELO 81.44%
  • Value Insight:
    • Extremely undervalued line for Seyboth Wild, suggesting a long shot bet could be worth considering.

Tommy Paul (-160) vs. Francisco Cerundolo (+130)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Paul: Pinnacle 57.95% vs. ELO 44.52% (overvalued)
    • Cerundolo: Pinnacle 42.05% vs. ELO 55.48% (undervalued)
  • Value Insight:
    • Betting on Cerundolo might be advantageous, as he’s underrated by Pinnacle.

Denis Shapovalov (+370) vs. Alexander Zverev (-520)

  • Implied Probability Analysis:
    • Shapovalov: Pinnacle 20.23% vs. ELO 22.66%
    • Zverev: Pinnacle 79.77% vs. ELO 77.34%
  • Value Insight:
    • Both players’ odds are closely matched to their ELO probabilities, suggesting fair lines from Pinnacle.

Remember, betting should always be done responsibly. Good luck, and may your wagers be wise!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

en_USEnglish