2024-04-26
Explore our detailed analysis of key matchups for tomorrow’s ATP Madrid 1000, highlighting each player’s win probability, Pinnacle odds, and value assessments.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Jakub Mensik (Pinnacle Odds: -450/+330)
- Grigor Dimitrov shows strong form with a 79.38% Elo win probability, indicating he is properly valued with his Pinnacle odds.
- Jakub Mensik, facing tough odds at +330, holds an actual chance of 20.62%, marking him as slightly undervalued given the generous payout potential.
Pedro Cachin vs. Frances Tiafoe (Pinnacle Odds: +200/-250)
- Pedro Cachin’s odds of +200 closely match his win probability of 30.91%, suggesting fair valuation.
- Frances Tiafoe, favored at -250, aligns closely with his win probability of 69.09%, showing no substantial value discrepancy.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Arnaldi (Pinnacle Odds: -310/+240)
- Daniil Medvedev is strongly favored, and his Pinnacle odds of -310 suggest he is slightly undervalued with a 72.99% win probability.
- Matteo Arnaldi, given odds of +240, is also slightly undervalued considering his 27.01% statistical chance.
Pavel Kotov vs. Jordan Thompson (Pinnacle Odds: -210/+170)
- Pavel Kotov’s odds of -210 are justified by his 65.18% win probability, indicating he is properly valued.
- Jordan Thompson, listed at +170, is slightly undervalued with a 34.82% chance of victory.
Roberto Bautista Agut vs. Karen Khachanov (Pinnacle Odds: +240/-310)
- Roberto Bautista Agut, with odds at +240, is undervalued compared to his 26.82% win probability.
- Karen Khachanov is considered overvalued at -310, as this pricing exceeds the support of his 73.18% win probability.
Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Sonego (Pinnacle Odds: -1100/+650)
- Jannik Sinner, with a dominant 89.18% win probability, is appropriately priced at -1100.
- Lorenzo Sonego, given long odds of +650, accurately reflects his slim 10.82% chance, showing fair valuation.
Nicolas Jarry vs. Flavio Cobolli (Pinnacle Odds: -170/+140)
- Nicolas Jarry’s slight undervaluation is evident with -170 odds, backed by a 60.97% win probability.
- Flavio Cobolli, at +140, matches his 39.03% chance, suggesting he is fairly priced.
Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Adrian Mannarino (Pinnacle Odds: -400/+300)
- Felix Auger Aliassime’s odds of -400 slightly undervalue his 77.48% chance of winning.
- Adrian Mannarino’s +300 odds are in line with his lower 22.52% win probability.
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Casper Ruud (Pinnacle Odds: +690/-1210)
- Miomir Kecmanovic, although a long shot at +690, is significantly undervalued with just a 10.12% chance against Casper Ruud.
- Casper Ruud’s strong favoritism is reflected in his -1210 odds, which align with an 89.88% win probability.
Max Purcell vs. Sebastian Korda (Pinnacle Odds: +450/-670)
- Max Purcell, offering +450, is undervalued with a 29.02% win probability, indicating a potential value bet.
- Sebastian Korda is heavily favored at -670, which aligns well with his 70.98% chance of victory, suggesting proper valuation.
Each matchup presents a strategic insight into where the betting value may lie, balancing between likelihood of victory and the odds provided.
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