Bucharest Open – Bucharest: Alejandro Tabilo vs. Marton Fucsovics
Alejandro Tabilo has a slight edge over Marton Fucsovics according to Pinnacle odds, with a win probability of 55.96% compared to Fucsovics’s 44.04%. However, the Elo ratings suggest a closer match, giving Tabilo a 52.16% win probability. Pinnacle odds are -140 for Tabilo and +120 for Fucsovics, slightly more optimistic for Tabilo compared to the Elo inferred odds of -120 and +100.
Bucharest Open – Bucharest: Francisco Cerundolo vs. Mariano Navone
In this matchup, Pinnacle gives Francisco Cerundolo a 55.11% win probability, slightly higher than his Elo win probability of 49.24%. The odds from Pinnacle are -140 for Cerundolo and +110 for Navone, indicating a close game, despite the Elo rating slightly favoring Navone with inferred odds of +100 and -110, showing potential value on Navone.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell – Barcelona: Casper Ruud vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Casper Ruud is heavily favored by both Pinnacle and Elo ratings against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. Pinnacle assigns a 74.30% win probability for Ruud, slightly lower than the Elo’s 80.64%. The Pinnacle odds are -360 for Ruud and +270 for Etcheverry, while Elo odds are even more skewed at -490 and +360, suggesting strong confidence in Ruud’s victory.
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell – Barcelona: Arthur Fils vs. Dusan Lajovic
Arthur Fils is favored to win against Dusan Lajovic, with Pinnacle odds of -160 (58.31% win probability) and Elo odds of -150 (57.37% win probability). Both systems show similar confidence in Fils, indicating a tight contest where Fils holds a slight advantage.
BMW Open – Munich: Cristian Garin vs. Taylor Harry Fritz
Taylor Harry Fritz is favored by Pinnacle with a win probability of 65.16%, a view shared by the Elo ratings, which predict a 59.55% chance for Fritz. Pinnacle offers odds of -220 for Fritz and +170 for Garin, while Elo suggests closer odds of -160 and +130, indicating a slightly better chance for Garin than what Pinnacle suggests.
BMW Open – Munich: Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Jan-Lennard Struff
This match shows a significant discrepancy between Pinnacle and Elo predictions. Pinnacle favors Felix Auger Aliassime with a 59.03% win probability, while Elo rates Jan-Lennard Struff as the likely winner with a 65.67% chance. The betting odds from Pinnacle are -160 for Auger Aliassime and +130 for Struff, contrasting sharply with Elo’s +170 and -210, indicating a value bet on Struff according to Elo.
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